Raid on Aid Ship: The Israeli Miscalculation

A country’s long term security primarily depends on it’s good relationship with it’s neighbors. Failing that, such a country has to ensure that it has enough deterrence to prevent any hostile action from it’s enemies. Since the state of Israel has been unwilling or at least unable to improve it’s relationship with neighboring states and has particularly kept the public opinion of these countries hostile to Israel, the only option left is deterrence via the threat of nuclear weapons and the reliance on powerful allies such as the U.S., the U.K. and France to name a few. For this strategy to be effective, Israel has to ensure that:

  1. no regional power in the middle east will ever aquire any type of mass destruction weapon
  2. Israel retains a significant military advantage in terms of technology and firepower
  3. the western powers will always intervene to protect Israel against any attack

The problem that arises in the long term is the difficulty to ensure a monopoly on nuclear weapons’ technology that has been developed more than 50 years ago. Eventually the neighboring countries will acquire such technology. Moreover, as shown in the Vietnam and Korean war, an inferior conventional firepower and technological disadvantage can be made up through expending more manpower. The long term demographic situation in the region makes this option more than likely. Lastly, will the western powers always be willing to sacrifice to save Israel? The answer to this last question cannot be necessarily affirmative due to the shift of economic and military power towards the far east and China in particular which might cause new challenges to keep western powers busy to retain their geostrategic position.

In view of this, Israel has been and is still arogantly wasting precious opportunities for peace. The latest developments will definitely damage Turkey’s relatively neutral stance towards Israel as the killings of Turkish nationals will likely inflame nationalistic feelings among the Turkish population. Israel may have gotten rid of 10 enemies and made millions more in a single miscalculated step.

Leave a Reply